Wednesday, 25 January 2012

The analysts weigh in on Apple's $46 billion quarter

Barclay's Ben Reitzes: No "Law of Large Numbers" Here. The upside Apple posted for the December quarter was beyond all of our most bullish scenarios, especially for iPhones and iPads. Most importantly, it seems momentum can continue given low channel inventories and demand in China. We look forward to several new product cycles this calendar year including a new line of iPads, an iPhone 5, and new Macs. In addition, we may hear more around a potential dividend and Apple's entry into the TV business during CY12 as well. With all of these drivers, Apple remains our top pick in the sector. Price target: $630, up from $555.

RBC's Mike Abramsky: iDominance! Strong Q1 results offer an early vote of confidence for CEO Tim Cook and team, and the strong guidance shows continued momentum from product cycles and expanding markets (Asia/emerging markets Q2–Q3). We remain constructive on the shares and view valuation (8x ex-cash) as compelling. Risks to our outlook include: 1) transitional risks post-Steve Jobs; 2) unexpected competitive gains; 3) margin erosion; and 4) "law of large numbers." Reiterate outperform. Price target: $600 (up from $525).

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: Apple reported the cleanest and strongest EPS beat in recent history. New iPad 3 and iPhone 5 will help maintain sales momentum in 2012 and increasing possibility of cash return could re-rate the stock toward IBM's multiple range of 12-13x P/E. Raising price target to $515.

ISI's Brian Marshall: When the Apple is Ripe, it will Fall...however, this AAPL is still growing on the Tree. With minimal "real" competitive threats to AAPL's major product families in CY12, we believe the outlook for the next 4 quarters can be characterized as "smooth sailing..." We think the road for the "AAPL cart" is relatively smooth over the next few quarters. Price target: $515.

Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Strong Dec. Results A Precursor To Monster 2012. We believe investors are missing the potential long term upside of Apple's current market expansion and future upgrade cycles. Based on our research, we estimate that 70% of iPhones sold in the US were upgrades from previous iPhones. We believe 30% of iPhone sales were from buyers going from iPhone 4 to iPhone 4S. Lastly, our research suggests 94% of iPhone owners expect to re-buy an iPhone. Price target: $670 up from $607.

BTIG's Walter Piecyk: Apple Target up to $600 after Blowout Fiscal Q1. The most impressive element of the quarter was clearly the 37 million iPhones that were sold during the quarter which topped our street high estimate of 35 million and produced an ASP that actually grew from the prior year, a clear indication of the popularity of the higher priced iPhone 4S. We believe Apple is gaining additional momentum on Android which suffers with a fragmented product portfolio and uneven customer experience and RIM's lack of interesting product. As an example, we estimate that Verizon's non-iPhone smartphone base actually declined in Q4 while the iPhone base grew by more than 4 million. Price target: $600, up from $580.

Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore: Product pipeline is stacked. We believe Apple's new product portfolio remains incredibly strong. Specifically, we expect iPad 3 in C1Q12 followed by an iPhone 5 refresh in the Fall. In addition, we expect Macs with Ivy Bridge should support incremental share gains and Apple TV appears set to graduate from an "Apple hobby" later this year. We anticipate an iOS device with Siri user interface and iCloud synching has the potential to redefine the smart TV category in the same way iPhone and iPad impacted the smartphone and tablet markets, respectively. Meanwhile, we expect iPad 3 to enter the tablet market as most competitors are refocusing their efforts on Windows 8 tablets. Price target: $600 up from $530.

That's it for now. Heading to San Francisco for Macworld/iWorld.

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